Lecce 1-0 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.63
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.55
X/1
14%
4.62
X/2
9%
6.54
X/X
8%
3.88
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
16%
5.16
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.55 — our 13% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.28/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.39
-38% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.9 Crosses 21.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.31 xG 1.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
331 Passes 285
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
06.01.2024 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
12.07.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
25.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.02.2012 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
02.10.2011 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-2 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-0
AWAY Cagliari
1.70 xG 1.88
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 10
180 Passes 379
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 42
16 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce squeezed past Cagliari 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lecce as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 35% of the ball to Cagliari's 65%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 1.70 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lecce and 1.17 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Cagliari?

Lecce 1-0 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lecce 41%, draw 27%, Cagliari 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5
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