Cagliari 1-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 May 2024

Cagliari
1-1 HT 1-0
Lecce
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.57
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.94
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.42
X/2
10%
6.98
X/X
11%
3.95
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
14%
5.61
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cagliari v Lecce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.75/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.37
+13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +38%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
27.7 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Cagliari vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Lecce
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 2.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
334 Passes 322
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 32
22 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
12.07.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
25.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.02.2012 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
02.10.2011 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-2 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
17.04.2011 Lecce Lecce 3-3 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA

Cagliari 1-1 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
1-1
AWAY Lecce
0.96 xG 1.82
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 10
137 Passes 359
63% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 37
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari and Lecce couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Cagliari at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Cagliari had 34% of the ball to Lecce's 66%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.96 to 1.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cagliari and 1.33 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Lecce?

Cagliari 1-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 42%, draw 29%, Lecce 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cagliari), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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