Hellas Verona 2-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.3
6+ Goals
7%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.08
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
16%
6.6
X/2
11%
4.67
X/X
16%
4.03
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.1
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+4.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 46%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.09/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.17
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.7 Crosses 19.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Fiorentina
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
273 Passes 299
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
27.02.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-3 HT 0-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
18.09.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
06.03.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
22.12.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.04.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
2-1
AWAY Fiorentina
1.89 xG 0.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
176 Passes 339
65% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hellas Verona squeezed past Fiorentina 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Hellas Verona found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hellas Verona had 38% of the ball to Fiorentina's 62%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.89 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.67 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?

Hellas Verona 2-1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 34%, draw 29%, Fiorentina 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
5 May 2024
13:30 Cagliari vs Lecce Analysis →
16:00 Empoli vs Frosinone Analysis →
19:00 Milan vs Genoa Analysis →
21:45 Roma vs Juventus Analysis →