Lazio 2-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 31 Aug 2024

Lazio
2-2 HT 0-1
Milan
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.9
Over 2.5
57%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
27%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.95
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.84
X/2
18%
5.35
X/X
9%
4.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
29.5
2/2
14%
3.5
2/X
5%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
49%
-5.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
51%
+5.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.22/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.20
-1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
15.0 Crosses 15.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Milan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.57
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
392 Passes 431
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2024 Lazio Lazio 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
30.09.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
06.05.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
24.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 4-0 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
24.04.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-2 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
09.02.2022 Milan Milan 4-0 HT 3-0 Lazio Lazio İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
2-2
AWAY Milan
2.07 xG 1.29
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
314 Passes 458
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio and Milan couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lazio had 42% of the ball to Milan's 58%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 2.07 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lazio and 1.83 for Milan.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Milan?

Lazio 2-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lazio 38%, draw 24%, Milan 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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