Alemannia Aachen 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.43
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.55
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
9%
5.36
X/2
14%
5.63
X/X
8%
4.75
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
19%
3.81
2/X
11%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
38%
-6.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
36%
+6.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alemannia Aachen EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 39%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.98/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.50
-35% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
343 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alemannia Aachen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
11.12.2011 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
16.07.2011 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
17.04.2011 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-5 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
21.11.2010 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 1-0 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
16.04.2008 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
02.11.2007 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 1-1 Alemannia Aachen Alemannia Aachen AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alemannia Aachen
1-2
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
41% Ball Possession 59%
23 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
222 Passes 364
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Alemannia Aachen vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Alemannia Aachen 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Alemannia Aachen had 41% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 59%, shots finished 23-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.83 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Alemannia Aachen vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Alemannia Aachen 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alemannia Aachen vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated an Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alemannia Aachen 32%, draw 27%, Erzgebirge Aue 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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