Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 31 Aug 2024

Borussia Dortmund II
1-1 HT 1-0
Osnabrück
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund II vs Osnabrück Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
9%
6.94
X/2
19%
4.96
X/X
10%
5.37
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
16%
2.82
2/X
9%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund II v Osnabrück — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.32/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.33
+2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
272 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
– Crosses 16.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Borussia Dortmund II vs Osnabrück Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.01.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 HT 1-2 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
29.01.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-2 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
25.08.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
18.04.2015 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
18.10.2014 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-2 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
14.12.2013 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 HT 0-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3

Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Osnabrück — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1-1
AWAY Osnabrück
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 354
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II and Osnabrück shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Osnabrück at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 45% of the ball to Osnabrück's 55%, shots finished 12-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osnabrück led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 1.83 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Osnabrück?

Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 3rd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osnabrück win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 31%, draw 26%, Osnabrück 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Osnabrück), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osnabrück) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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