Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.92
6+ Goals
11%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.48
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
13%
5.13
X/2
13%
5.84
X/X
14%
4.3
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.18
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 37%
-13% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.28/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.95
-18% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +47%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 82%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.9 Crosses 18.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 0.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
335 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
28.09.2019 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-0 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
20.07.2008 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2-3
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.64 xG 0.52
71% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 0
527 Passes 190
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
46 Box Touches 5
44 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy nicked a narrow win over Kashiwa Reysol 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Tokyo Verdy made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 71% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 29%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 1.64 to 0.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Kashiwa Reysol.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.00 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Tokyo Verdy?

Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 38%, draw 29%, Tokyo Verdy 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5
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