Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.55
X/1
18%
3.61
X/2
8%
15.05
X/X
10%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.85
2/2
10%
11.6
2/X
6%
19.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.66/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.76
-3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
436 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
25.8 Crosses 14.6
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 0.76
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
307 Passes 304
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.06.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
05.06.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-2 HT 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
02.03.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
28.10.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
22.04.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
30.07.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-2
AWAY FC Tokyo
2.12 xG 0.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
307 Passes 377
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima edged past FC Tokyo 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 46% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 54%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.12 to 0.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.33 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 53%, draw 23%, FC Tokyo 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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