Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Estrela
POR
3-0
HT 2-0
Estrela
POR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Casa Pia
POR2
Estrela 0-1 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Estrela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Estrela had 66% of the ball to Casa Pia's 34%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.46 to 0.60.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Estrela had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Estrela and 1.00 for Casa Pia.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela 0-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estrela 41%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.