Portland Hearts of Pine 4-2 Charlotte Independence — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.7pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.45/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.68
-23% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.6 Crosses 17.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.77 xG 1.18
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 451
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 37
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.07.2025 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 1-1 HT 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
4-2
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.93 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
267 Passes 347
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine saw off Charlotte Independence 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portland Hearts of Pine as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 45% of the ball to Charlotte Independence's 55%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.93 to 1.74.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence?

Portland Hearts of Pine 4-2 Charlotte Independence in the USA - USL League 1 on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 42%, draw 27%, Charlotte Independence 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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