Sporting Braga 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 31 Oct 2024

📅31/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.64
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.44
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 36% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.85
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
7%
4.32
X/2
15%
7.11
X/X
14%
4.08
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
14%
5.72
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
46%
-10.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
35%
Away Win
26%
+8.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 29%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.62/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/0.70
+14% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +93%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses
4.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
360 Passes 301
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.09.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
11.05.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-3 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
06.01.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
28.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.01.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
03.09.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.39 xG 0.56
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
418 Passes 251
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Sporting Braga found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 61% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 39%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.39 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Braga's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting Braga 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - League Cup on 31/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 36%, draw 30%, Vitoria Guimaraes 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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