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Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Afan Lido v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals
Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
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4-1
HT 3-0
Afan Lido
GALWK
3-1
HT 0-1
Caerau (Ely)
GALFAW
Afan Lido squeezed past Caerau (Ely) 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Caerau (Ely) at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caerau (Ely) led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Afan Lido and 2.60 for Caerau (Ely).
What was the final score of Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
Afan Lido 3-2 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 31/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Afan Lido 18%, draw 25%, Caerau (Ely) 57%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.