Bristol City 0-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Jan 2024

Bristol City
0-1 HT 0-0
Millwall
📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Bristol City vs Millwall Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
16%
4.77
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 36% vs market 34.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.21
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
15%
4.52
X/2
12%
6.17
X/X
19%
3.91
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
13%
4.96
2/X
5%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol City v Millwall — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +25%
1.26/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.24
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 72%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.5 Crosses 17.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Bristol City vs Millwall Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Millwall
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
304 Passes 293
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
29.12.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
15.10.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
02.01.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 1-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
29.09.2021 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
01.05.2021 Millwall Millwall 4-1 HT 2-1 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL

Bristol City 0-1 Millwall — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
0-1
AWAY Millwall
0.48 xG 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
448 Passes 368
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall nicked a narrow win over Bristol City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Millwall found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bristol City had 54% of the ball to Millwall's 46%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.48 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bristol City and 1.50 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Millwall?

Bristol City 0-1 Millwall in the England - Championship on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 39%, draw 30%, Millwall 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bristol City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bristol City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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