Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Jan 2024

Middlesbrough
1-3 HT 1-1
Coventry
📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.77
X/2
10%
6.94
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1
7%
23.45
2/2
16%
4.74
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Coventry — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Coventry EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.48/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.17
-10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.5 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Coventry
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
434 Passes 287
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Coventry Coventry 3-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
17.05.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
14.05.2023 Coventry Coventry 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
08.05.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Coventry Coventry İNCL
01.10.2022 Coventry Coventry 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
29.01.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL

Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-3
AWAY Coventry
1.66 xG 2.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 9
379 Passes 487
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
33 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Coventry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coventry got the better of Middlesbrough 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 45% of the ball to Coventry's 55%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 1.66 to 2.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coventry led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Coventry.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Coventry?

Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry in the England - Championship on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Coventry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 41%, draw 26%, Coventry 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
1 Jan 2024
15:30 Sunderland vs Preston North End Analysis →
18:00 Norwich City vs Southampton Analysis →
18:00 Bristol City vs Millwall Analysis →
18:00 Swansea City vs West Bromwich Analysis →
18:00 Blackburn Rovers vs Rotherham United Analysis →
18:00 Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff City Analysis →