Norwich City 1-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.09
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
9%
7.31
X/2
13%
4.56
X/X
10%
5.15
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.63
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 51%
-21% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
0.75/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.67
-33% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +92%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
266 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.7
20.1 Crosses 18.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Southampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.94 xG 2.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
293 Passes 399
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Southampton Southampton 4-4 HT 2-3 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
25.02.2022 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 1-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNP
20.11.2021 Norwich City Norwich City 2-1 HT 1-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
19.06.2020 Norwich City Norwich City 0-3 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
04.12.2019 Southampton Southampton 2-1 HT 2-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNP
18.01.2017 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
1-1
AWAY Southampton
0.83 xG 2.50
25% Ball Possession 75%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 12
208 Passes 718
80% Pass Accuracy 92%
12 Box Touches 44
12 Crosses 31
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City and Southampton couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Norwich City had 25% of the ball to Southampton's 75%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.83 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Norwich City and 2.17 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Southampton?

Norwich City 1-1 Southampton in the England - Championship on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 32%, draw 25%, Southampton 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Southampton), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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