Derby County vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 3-1
Derby County
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Middlesbrough
İNCL
2-1
HT 2-1
Middlesbrough
İNCL
Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County edged past Middlesbrough 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Derby County found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Derby County had 31% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 69%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 1.16 to 1.33.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Derby County and 1.33 for Middlesbrough.
What was the final score of Derby County vs Middlesbrough?
Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 01/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County vs Middlesbrough?
Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Derby County 35%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), BTTS Yes went the other way.