Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Nov 2025

Middlesbrough
2-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Middlesbrough vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.82
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 29% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.71
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
19%
4.51
X/2
10%
7.69
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
15%
6.15
2/X
5%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.39/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.27
-17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.7 Crosses 17.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Middlesbrough vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.32 xG 0.63
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
329 Passes 252
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.03.2025 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
17.08.2024 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
12.02.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-1 HT 3-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
21.08.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
13.02.2021 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
25.11.2020 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
2-1
AWAY Derby County
1.53 xG 0.92
74% Ball Possession 26%
21 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 8
455 Passes 111
85% Pass Accuracy 62%
25 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough squeezed past Derby County 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 74% of the ball to Derby County's 26%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.53 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.67 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Derby County?

Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 44%, draw 26%, Derby County 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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