Middlesbrough vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Middlesbrough v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Middlesbrough vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 3-1
Derby County
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Middlesbrough
İNCL
2-1
HT 2-1
Middlesbrough
İNCL
3-0
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
2-2
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Middlesbrough edged past Derby County 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Middlesbrough had 65% of the ball to Derby County's 35%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 1.00 to 0.22.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Derby County?
Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 52%, draw 25%, Derby County 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.