Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 17 Aug 2024

Derby County
1-0 HT 1-0
Middlesbrough
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.62
1/2
10%
23.6
1/X
11%
14.35
X/1
13%
7.61
X/2
10%
4.32
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.56
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 53%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -26%
1.15/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.32
+16% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -46%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
232 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
17.5 Crosses 18.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Derby County vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.87 xG 1.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
326 Passes 255
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.02.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-1 HT 3-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
21.08.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
13.02.2021 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
25.11.2020 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
11.01.2020 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.11.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL

Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-0
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.05 xG 1.55
29% Ball Possession 71%
3 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
160 Passes 500
69% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County nicked a narrow win over Middlesbrough 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Derby County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Derby County had 29% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 71%, shots finished 3-20, expected goals 1.05 to 1.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Middlesbrough.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Middlesbrough?

Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Derby County 34%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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