Millwall 3-2 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
13%
6.4
X/2
14%
5.17
X/X
10%
4.62
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
23%
3.28
2/X
9%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.16/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.27
+0% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -15%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 81%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
20.7 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Southampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.84 xG 1.33
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
145 Passes 653
68% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2024 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton HAZ
24.02.2024 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
04.11.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
26.08.2014 Millwall Millwall 0-2 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNLK
17.03.2012 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 2-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
07.02.2012 Southampton Southampton 2-3 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
3-2
AWAY Southampton
1.83 xG 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
21 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 6
227 Passes 385
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 22
38 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall nicked a narrow win over Southampton 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Millwall had 41% of the ball to Southampton's 59%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.83 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Millwall and 1.67 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Southampton?

Millwall 3-2 Southampton in the England - Championship on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Millwall 30%, draw 26%, Southampton 43%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Southampton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ BTTS Yes
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