Aarau 2-1 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.7pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +24%
1.89/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.70
-12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.3 Crosses 12.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.59 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
361 Passes 284
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-4 HT 0-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
31.08.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
26.04.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
29.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 5-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
2-1
AWAY Bellinzona
1.86 xG 1.45
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 10
234 Passes 246
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau squeezed past Bellinzona 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Aarau had 47% of the ball to Bellinzona's 53%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.86 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aarau and 2.17 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Aarau 2-1 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Aarau 47%, draw 23%, Bellinzona 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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