Bellinzona 1-4 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.3pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.5pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-5.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 48%
-12% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
0.94/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.34
-35% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
15.2 Crosses 12.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aarau
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.20 xG 1.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
261 Passes 387
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
26.04.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
29.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 5-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
30.04.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
1-4
AWAY Aarau
0.65 xG 3.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 0
395 Passes 228
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau cruised past Bellinzona 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (30% / 32% / 38%) promised a tight game; Aarau found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bellinzona had 60% of the ball to Aarau's 40%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.65 to 3.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bellinzona and 1.33 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Bellinzona 1-4 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 30%, draw 32%, Aarau 38%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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