Once Caldas 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.20/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.96
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
19.7 Crosses 15.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.86 xG 1.03
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
260 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
02.11.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
26.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOLK
13.04.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
10.04.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.30 xG 1.14
35% Ball Possession 65%
0 Corners 1
47 Passes 100
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
1 Box Touches 5
3 Crosses 4
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Fortaleza CEIF 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 35% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 65%, expected goals 1.30 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fortaleza CEIF led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Once Caldas and 1.75 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Once Caldas 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 42%, draw 32%, Fortaleza CEIF 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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