MOL Fehervar 1-0 Puskas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.75
Over
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No Pick
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.83
2-3
37%
1.72
4-5
21%
3.7
6+
11%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.83 — our 31% vs market 28.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-8.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 50%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.82/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.28
+30% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +49%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
12.8 Crosses 23.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MOL Fehervar
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Puskas FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 2.55
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
335 Passes 364
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Puskas FC Puskas FC 3-0 HT 1-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
29.03.2024 Puskas FC Puskas FC 0-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
02.12.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-1 HT 2-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
18.08.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 2-2 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
14.05.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 2-1 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
18.02.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-1 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MOL Fehervar
1-0
AWAY Puskas FC
0.51 xG 0.36
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
179 Passes 420
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MOL Fehervar vs Puskas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar squeezed past Puskas FC 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 38% — and on the day MOL Fehervar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, MOL Fehervar had 34% of the ball to Puskas FC's 66%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.51 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puskas FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for MOL Fehervar and 1.50 for Puskas FC.

What was the final score of MOL Fehervar vs Puskas FC?

MOL Fehervar 1-0 Puskas FC in the Hungary - NB I on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MOL Fehervar vs Puskas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Puskas FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split MOL Fehervar 35%, draw 26%, Puskas FC 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Puskas FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puskas FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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