Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.02
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 28% vs market 18.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
11.9
X/1
15%
4.84
X/2
6%
8.68
X/X
9%
5.13
2/1
8%
22.1
2/2
11%
6.12
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
50%
+3.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.0pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.80/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.79
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.4 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.29
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
473 Passes 261
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.12.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-3 HT 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POLK
28.07.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
10.03.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.09.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.03.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.08.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.87 xG 0.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 5
387 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin nicked a narrow win over Zaglebie Lubin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 59% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 41%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.87 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pogon Szczecin's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 53%, draw 24%, Zaglebie Lubin 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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