Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Feb 2026

Real Madrid
2 - 1 HT 1 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
📅01/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
78%
1.3
Draw
14%
4.95
Away
8%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
30%
2.63
Over
70%
1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.72
No
46%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1
13%
5.92
2-3 ✓
42%
2.08
4-5
33%
2.54
6+
12%
5.51
Value flag · 2-3 at 2.08 — our 42% vs market 41.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
53%
1.51
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
3%
19.85
X/1 ✗
22%
4.04
X/2
3%
18.25
X/X
8%
8.86
2/1
3%
19.65
2/2
4%
14.2
2/X
3%
22.7
Value flag · X/1 at 4.04 — our 22% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Real Madrid The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano The Market 15%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.80 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.87
0.83 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.32
Strong Attack Strength Weak
Strong Defense Strength Average
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
480 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 82%
40 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
483 Passes 321
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
35 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.11.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
09.03.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 2-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
14.12.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-3 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
18.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2 - 1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.21 xG 1.03
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
522 Passes 390
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
54 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 7
REVIEW Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Real Madrid came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Rayo Vallecano 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (70%) landed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 57% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 43%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.21 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Real Madrid and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Result & Final Score

Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 78%, draw 14%, Rayo Vallecano 8%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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