Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 9 Mar 2025

Real Madrid
2-1 HT 2-1
Rayo Vallecano
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
10%
7.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.2
X/1
14%
3.8
X/2
7%
17.5
X/X
9%
7.88
2/1
6%
20.8
2/2
8%
14.7
2/X
7%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-13.7pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.7pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
2.27/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.59
+23% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
17.8 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.63 xG 1.01
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
516 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.12.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-3 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
18.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
07.11.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-2 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
26.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.54 xG 1.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
410 Passes 490
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
30 Box Touches 18
7 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid squeezed past Rayo Vallecano 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 46% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 54%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 1.54 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Real Madrid and 1.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 58%, draw 22%, Rayo Vallecano 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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