Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Mallorca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.35
6+ Goals
12%
22.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.9
X/1
11%
4.04
X/2
9%
10.1
X/X
7%
4.23
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
9%
8.98
2/X
7%
16.95
Value flag · 1/X at 14.9 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
55%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mallorca EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.71/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.36
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
23.9 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Mallorca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.44 xG 0.53
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
468 Passes 191
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 12
34 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.10.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
06.04.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 0-1 Mallorca Mallorca İSPK
02.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-0 HT 2-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
03.09.2023 Mallorca Mallorca 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
01.05.2023 Mallorca Mallorca 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
15.08.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1-1
AWAY Mallorca
0.71 xG 0.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
346 Passes 261
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao and Mallorca shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 56% of the ball to Mallorca's 44%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.71 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.33 for Mallorca.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca?

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Mallorca in the Spain - Primera Liga on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 51%, draw 25%, Mallorca 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5
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