Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Feb 2026

Central Coast Mariners
1-0 HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
📅01/02/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2025/2026

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.35
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
8%
10.15
X/2
18%
4.44
X/X
10%
6.24
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.09
2/X
10%
14.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.35 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.1pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 60%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.29/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.43
-13% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -20%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 83%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
16.6 Crosses 16.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.54 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
387 Passes 418
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.03.2025 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 2-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
18.10.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.05.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.02.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.12.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.52 xG 1.61
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 26
1 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 15
222 Passes 545
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 51
11 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Victory 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 33% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 67%, shots finished 7-26, expected goals 0.52 to 1.61 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne Victory.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.17 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?

Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 01/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 27%, draw 26%, Melbourne Victory 48%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ BTTS Yes
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