Motor Lublin 2-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Feb 2026

📅01/02/2026 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
15%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.79
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
6.13
X/2
12%
5.81
X/X
11%
5.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
20%
3.48
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -35%
1.54/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.29
+10% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
24.4 Crosses 22.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.90 xG 1.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
326 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-1 HT 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
14.05.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
02.11.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 4-2 HT 3-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
2-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.15 xG 1.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
270 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin edged past Pogon Szczecin 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Motor Lublin made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 40% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 60%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 2.15 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Motor Lublin and 3.00 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Motor Lublin 2-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 37%, draw 25%, Pogon Szczecin 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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