Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.04
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
19%
4.43
X/2
11%
10.5
X/X
11%
6.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.2
2/2
10%
7.67
2/X
6%
15.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
2.15/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.56
+31% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.9 Crosses 19.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.99 xG 2.03
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
533 Passes 305
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.05.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
02.11.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 4-2 HT 3-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
4-1
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.68 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
231 Passes 348
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin swept aside Motor Lublin 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 42% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 58%, shots finished 19-20, expected goals 2.68 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 2.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 50%, draw 24%, Motor Lublin 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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