Lechia Gdansk 3-4 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Jul 2025

Lechia Gdansk
3-4 HT 2-0
Lech Poznan
📅26/07/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
13%
9.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.58
1/2
8%
23.3
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
9%
6.88
X/2
18%
5.21
X/X
15%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
29.5
2/2
14%
2.99
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.44/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.19
-9% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
19.1 Crosses 17.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.73 xG 1.76
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
310 Passes 388
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.02.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
03.08.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-1 HT 3-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
03.03.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
31.08.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
20.02.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
22.08.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Lechia Gdansk 3-4 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
3-4
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.38 xG 2.59
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 21
7 Shots on Target 11
9 Corners 10
211 Passes 363
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan nicked a narrow win over Lechia Gdansk 4-3 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Lech Poznan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 40% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 60%, shots finished 16-21, expected goals 1.38 to 2.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lech Poznan's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 2.17 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?

Lechia Gdansk 3-4 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 32%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan 40%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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