Almeria vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Almeria v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
Almeria vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
Malaga
HAZ
0-1
HT 0-0
Almeria
İS2
2-0
HT 0-0
Malaga
İS2
0-3
HT 0-2
Almeria
İS2
Almeria 2-2 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
Almeria and Malaga couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Almeria had 53% of the ball to Malaga's 47%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 3.37 to 1.31.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Almeria and 0.33 for Malaga.
What was the final score of Almeria vs Malaga?
Almeria 2-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Almeria vs Malaga?
Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Almeria 53%, draw 23%, Malaga 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.