Almeria 2-2 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
8%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 31% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.8
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.9
X/1
17%
3.85
X/2
8%
12.55
X/X
8%
5.94
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
9%
10.65
2/X
8%
19.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 19%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.96/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.51
+24% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
17.2 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Malaga
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.39 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
353 Passes 321
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Malaga Malaga 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
27.07.2024 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria HAZ
27.07.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-1 Malaga Malaga HAZ
12.02.2022 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.09.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
30.03.2021 Malaga Malaga 0-3 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-2
AWAY Malaga
3.37 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
319 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria and Malaga couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 53% of the ball to Malaga's 47%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 3.37 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Almeria and 0.33 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Malaga?

Almeria 2-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Almeria 53%, draw 23%, Malaga 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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