Lens 3-4 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Mar 2025

Lens
3-4 HT 2-2
Le Havre
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lens vs Le Havre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.15
X/1
15%
3.75
X/2
8%
13.95
X/X
8%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.0
2/2
8%
12.25
2/X
7%
20.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.0pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lens v Le Havre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.89/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.60
-3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +49%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
437 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.5 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Lens vs Le Havre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Le Havre
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.41 xG 1.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
407 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.01.2025 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FR1
06.04.2024 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.10.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
31.01.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR2
17.08.2019 Lens Lens 1-3 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
01.04.2019 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2

Lens 3-4 Le Havre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
3-4
AWAY Le Havre
1.88 xG 1.45
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
525 Passes 209
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lens vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre squeezed past Lens 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lens had 69% of the ball to Le Havre's 31%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.88 to 1.45 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lens.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lens and 0.83 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Lens vs Le Havre?

Lens 3-4 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lens 54%, draw 23%, Le Havre 22%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lens), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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