PSG 4-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Mar 2025

PSG
4-1 HT 4-0
Lille
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.58
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
18.9
X/1
20%
3.85
X/2
11%
15.95
X/X
10%
7.5
2/1
6%
20.6
2/2
7%
13.2
2/X
8%
21.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-13.8pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.28/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/2.04
+19% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +3%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
501 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
15.7 Crosses 12.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7

PSG vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lille
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.74 xG 1.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
482 Passes 390
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Lille Lille 1-3 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1
10.02.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
17.12.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.02.2023 PSG PSG 4-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
21.08.2022 Lille Lille 1-7 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
06.02.2022 Lille Lille 1-5 HT 1-3 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 4-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
4-1
AWAY Lille
3.59 xG 1.08
58% Ball Possession 42%
26 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
595 Passes 407
92% Pass Accuracy 86%
51 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSG vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG ran out comfortable winners over Lille 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, PSG had 58% of the ball to Lille's 42%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.59 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for PSG and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of PSG vs Lille?

PSG 4-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split PSG 56%, draw 22%, Lille 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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