Lille 1-3 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Sep 2024

Lille
1-3 HT 0-2
PSG
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 24% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.29
1/2
8%
21.85
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
8%
8.7
X/2
16%
4.2
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.29
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +15%
1.51/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.45
+19% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 500 · 85%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
14.7 Crosses 12.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lille vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSG
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
1.60 xG 2.65
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
383 Passes 478
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.02.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
17.12.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.02.2023 PSG PSG 4-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
21.08.2022 Lille Lille 1-7 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
06.02.2022 Lille Lille 1-5 HT 1-3 PSG PSG FR1
29.10.2021 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 1-3 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-3
AWAY PSG
1.40 xG 2.60
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
359 Passes 542
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
32 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lille vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG saw off Lille 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lille had 41% of the ball to PSG's 59%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.40 to 2.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lille and 3.67 for PSG.

What was the final score of Lille vs PSG?

Lille 1-3 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lille 28%, draw 25%, PSG 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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