Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.95
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
17.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 30% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.99
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
19%
5.63
X/2
12%
5.32
X/X
9%
4.24
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
14%
3.67
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.27/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.33
-5% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.0 Crosses 24.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Auxerre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 0.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 Passes 432
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2022 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
21.12.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 2-3 HT 1-2 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
05.04.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
01.12.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
06.03.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
05.10.2019 Auxerre Auxerre 2-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
3-1
AWAY Auxerre
2.76 xG 0.58
49% Ball Possession 51%
22 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
369 Passes 385
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre got the better of Auxerre 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Le Havre made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Le Havre had 49% of the ball to Auxerre's 51%, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 2.76 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Le Havre and 1.33 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Auxerre?

Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Havre win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 37%, draw 27%, Auxerre 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Le Havre) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Le Havre) ✗ Under 2.5
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