Monaco 1-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Sep 2024

Monaco
1-1 HT 0-0
Lens
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 26% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.67
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
14%
4.68
X/2
10%
7.36
X/X
13%
5.24
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
15%
5.01
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.67/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.54
+8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.8 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lens
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.49 xG 2.05
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 455
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Lens Lens 2-3 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
07.01.2024 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FRK
02.09.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-0 HT 2-0 Lens Lens FR1
22.04.2023 Lens Lens 3-0 HT 2-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
20.08.2022 Monaco Monaco 1-4 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
21.05.2022 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1-1
AWAY Lens
1.03 xG 2.24
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
367 Passes 200
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco and Lens shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Monaco had 61% of the ball to Lens's 39%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.03 to 2.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monaco and 2.17 for Lens.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Lens?

Monaco 1-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Monaco 44%, draw 26%, Lens 30%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monaco)
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