Osijek 1-2 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.8
Over 2.5
39%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.2pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.12/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.20
+10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
23.1 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 Passes 276
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-2 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
15.09.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
29.03.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
17.12.2023 Osijek Osijek 4-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
30.09.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
22.07.2023 Osijek Osijek 6-1 HT 3-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
1-2
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.43 xG 0.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
327 Passes 350
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo squeezed past Osijek 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Slaven Belupo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osijek had 49% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 51%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.43 to 0.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured Osijek.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Osijek and 1.00 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Slaven Belupo?

Osijek 1-2 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Osijek 38%, draw 28%, Slaven Belupo 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
1 Mar 2025
17:00 HNK Gorica vs Rijeka Analysis →