JEF United 3-2 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JEF United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.45/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.34
-7% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 18.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JEF United
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
295 Passes 377
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.11.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 4-0 HT 3-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
25.02.2024 JEF United JEF United 2-3 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
12.08.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-0 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
25.02.2023 JEF United JEF United 1-3 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
18.09.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
06.03.2022 JEF United JEF United 0-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JEF United
3-2
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
204 Passes 482
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH JEF United vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JEF United nicked a narrow win over Montedio Yamagata 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had JEF United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, JEF United had 35% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 65%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for JEF United and 2.17 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of JEF United vs Montedio Yamagata?

JEF United 3-2 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JEF United vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a JEF United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split JEF United 45%, draw 26%, Montedio Yamagata 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JEF United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (JEF United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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