Ujpest 1-5 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
8%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ujpest EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.68/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.55
+24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
275 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.0 Crosses 20.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ujpest
1W-0D-5L
AWAY MTK Budapest
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.51 xG 1.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
432 Passes 340
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 4-1 HT 1-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
21.04.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 1-2 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
02.02.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 3-0 HT 2-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
23.09.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 0-2 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.04.2022 Ujpest Ujpest 2-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
05.12.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ujpest
1-5
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.83 xG 3.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
342 Passes 316
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ujpest vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest ran out comfortable winners over Ujpest 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ujpest at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ujpest had 52% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 48%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.83 to 3.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ujpest and 2.17 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Ujpest vs MTK Budapest?

Ujpest 1-5 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ujpest vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ujpest 44%, draw 27%, MTK Budapest 29%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ujpest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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