Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.38
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
10%
12.05
X/1
14%
5.41
X/2
9%
6.46
X/X
9%
4.24
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
16%
4.47
2/X
8%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
1.51/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.47
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
21.5 Crosses 15.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.74 xG 1.57
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
283 Passes 374
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
07.04.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
01.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-0 HT 3-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.09.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0-3
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.25 xG 2.53
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
263 Passes 340
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan ran out comfortable winners over Pogon Szczecin 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 47% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 53%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.25 to 2.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.17 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?

Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 42%, draw 27%, Lech Poznan 31%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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