Krasnodar 1-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.67
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.35 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.95
X/1
18%
3.85
X/2
8%
12.9
X/X
10%
5.93
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
8%
10.95
2/X
6%
19.5
Value flag · 1/X at 16.95 — our 9% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-9.3pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -20%
1.97/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.66
+7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
17.0 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.55 xG 0.68
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
406 Passes 298
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2024 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-2 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
29.04.2024 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
05.11.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
07.05.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
19.04.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUSK
03.10.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
1-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.47 xG 1.23
70% Ball Possession 30%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
499 Passes 174
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar and Krylya Sovetov couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Krasnodar at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 70% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 30%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.47 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Krasnodar and 0.83 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Krylya Sovetov?

Krasnodar 1-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 54%, draw 25%, Krylya Sovetov 21%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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