Aberystwyth Town 0-4 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 1 Mar 2026

Aberystwyth Town
0-4 HT 0-1
Caerau (Ely)
📅01/03/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2025/2026

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.40/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.24
-20% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +35%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
331 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberystwyth Town
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
20.12.2025 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 1-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caerau (Ely) ran out comfortable winners over Aberystwyth Town 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Caerau (Ely) made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Aberystwyth Town 0-4 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberystwyth Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aberystwyth Town 38%, draw 25%, Caerau (Ely) 36%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aberystwyth Town), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aberystwyth Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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