Newport City 4-4 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 1 Mar 2026

📅01/03/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.8pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.9pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.15/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.37
-37% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport City
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
27.09.2025 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
22.03.2025 Newport City Newport City 3-0 HT 1-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
14.09.2024 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City and Carmarthen Town shared the points in a 4-4 draw. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Carmarthen Town led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Newport City and 0.67 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?

Newport City 4-4 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Newport City 37%, draw 32%, Carmarthen Town 31%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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