Carmarthen Town 1-0 Newport City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport City EU Bookmakers 39%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.61/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.17
-9% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +46%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carmarthen Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Newport City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
22.03.2025 Newport City Newport City 3-0 HT 1-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
14.09.2024 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carmarthen Town edged past Newport City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Carmarthen Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Carmarthen Town and 1.50 for Newport City.

What was the final score of Carmarthen Town vs Newport City?

Carmarthen Town 1-0 Newport City in the Wales - FAW Championship on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carmarthen Town vs Newport City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Carmarthen Town 44%, draw 27%, Newport City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carmarthen Town) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✗ BTTS Yes
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