Utrecht 2-0 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Mar 2026

📅01/03/2026 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.5 — our 24% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.07
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
6.52
X/X
9%
4.59
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
11%
4.69
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · X/2 at 6.52 — our 19% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +8%
1.85/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.23
-4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +31%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
24.4 Crosses 11.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
2W-3D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 2.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
350 Passes 435
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 32
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
18.01.2025 Utrecht Utrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
29.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
19.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-3 HT 3-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
03.12.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
07.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
2-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.19 xG 0.89
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
257 Passes 404
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht got the better of AZ Alkmaar 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Utrecht made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Utrecht had 41% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 59%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.19 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Utrecht and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?

Utrecht 2-0 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 40%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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