AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.33
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.66
No
38%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
30%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.89
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
14%
4.2
X/2
5%
11.45
X/X
12%
6.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.8
2/2
9%
8.61
2/X
5%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
56%
+6.1pp
38%
BTTS No
44%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
2.25/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.41
+15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.0 Crosses 16.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.74 xG 1.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
426 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.01.2025 Utrecht Utrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
29.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
19.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-3 HT 3-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
03.12.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
07.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOK
28.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-5 HT 3-3 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
4-1
AWAY Utrecht
3.59 xG 0.99
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
405 Passes 388
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar cruised past Utrecht 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 50% of the ball to Utrecht's 50%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 3.59 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.17 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?

AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 58%, draw 23%, Utrecht 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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