Rochdale 1-1 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 29% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
20%
4.36
X/2
11%
8.17
X/X
10%
5.25
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
13%
5.82
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 28%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.53/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.84
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
423 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Hartlepool United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
312 Passes 248
71% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-3 HT 1-3 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
21.01.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-0 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
26.12.2022 Rochdale Rochdale 1-2 HT 0-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
18.04.2022 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 0-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
08.12.2021 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
09.11.2016 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-2 HT 0-1 Rochdale Rochdale İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
1-1
AWAY Hartlepool United
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale and Hartlepool United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rochdale at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rochdale had 45% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 55%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rochdale and 1.67 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Rochdale 1-1 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 44%, draw 25%, Hartlepool United 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rochdale), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rochdale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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