Burton Albion 1-3 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 30% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.74
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
7%
7.61
X/2
20%
4.32
X/X
8%
4.74
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.6
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 52%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.05/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.98
+2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
218 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 70%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
17.1 Crosses 20.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Barnsley
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.57 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
263 Passes 337
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
07.04.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
17.12.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.04.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.02.2019 Barnsley Barnsley 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
20.02.2018 Barnsley Barnsley 1-2 HT 0-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-3
AWAY Barnsley
0.79 xG 1.47
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
176 Passes 343
58% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 25
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley beat Burton Albion 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barnsley as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 39% of the ball to Barnsley's 61%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.79 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Burton Albion and 1.17 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Barnsley?

Burton Albion 1-3 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 24%, draw 27%, Barnsley 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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